ECH ‘Bracketology’: Version 2.0
Written by alex berger - March 3, 2025Welcome to the postseason. This past weekend Atlantic Hockey started their conference playoff tournament with first round games between the bottom six seeds. Next weekend, the Big Ten, CCHA, and ECAC will join them in postseason play.
As those tournaments continue, more and more teams will be officially knocked out of contention for the NCAA Tournament. Right now, ten teams are virtual locks to make the top 16 (90%+ chance, according to CHN).
The bubble for automatic qualifiers has also been set. Those teams include Quinnipiac, Penn State, Arizona State, and UMass-Lowell. Every other team below them needs to win their respective conference postseason tournament to keep their season alive in the NCAAs.
- How The NCAA Tournament Field Is Determined
16 teams qualify for the NCAA tournament every year. Automatic bids are given to the conference postseason champions, and the other "at large" bids are calculated through the Pairwise. That is, long-story short, a mathematical system that ranks teams based on their record, their opponent's record, and their opponent's opponent's records.
This year, the four regional sites (teams hosting) are in Allentown, Pennsylvania (Penn State), Fargo, North Dakota (North Dakota), Toledo, Ohio (Bowling Green), and Manchester, New Hampshire (New Hampshire). If any of the hosting teams qualify for the tournament, they will be automatically placed at their regional site. The four regional winners go to the Frozen Four, which is in St. Louis, Missouri this year.
In the past, the NCAA tournament selection committee has placed teams at certain regional sites in order to increase attendance. However they also have to balance this with keeping bracket integrity as much as possible (i.e. #1 seed plays #16, #2 plays #15, etc.). Conference matchups are also avoided in the first round of the tournament, which causes matchups to occasionally flip.
Teams have to have a .500 or better record in at least 20 games against Division 1 opponents to be eligible for an at-large bid.
- The Current Field
So, let's start looking at who would be in the tournament if the season ended today. We're taking rankings based on Sunday, March 2nd. Although anything can happen in the postseason, to make it easier we will use the highest remaining seed in each respective conference regular season standings or conference tournament.
Automatic Bids: Holy Cross (#25, Atlantic), Michigan State (#2, Big Ten), Minnesota State (#17, CCHA), Quinnipiac (#13, ECAC), Boston College (#1, Hockey East), and Western Michigan (#5, NCHC).
Six teams earn automatic bids, which means the next ten highest ranked teams in the Pairwise earn "at-large" bids. Here is the current top-20 in the Pairwise.
Credit: College Hockey News
"At-Large" Bids: Minnesota, Maine, Providence, Boston University, Connecticut, Ohio State, Denver, Michigan, Massachusetts, and Penn State.
We've got our 16 tournament teams. As it stands, the first four teams out would be UMass-Lowell, Arizona State, North Dakota, and Clarkson.
- Putting Together The Regionals
Now we can start ranking the 16 qualifying teams by seeds using the Pairwise rankings. The top four teams are #1 seeds, next four are #2 seeds, and so on.
#1 Seeds (1-4): #1 Boston College, #2 Michigan State, #3 Minnesota, and #4 Maine
#2 Seeds (5-8): #5 Western Michigan, #6 Providence, #7 Boston University, and #8 Connecticut
#3 Seeds (9-12): #9 Ohio State, #10 Denver, #11 Michigan, and #12 Massachusetts
#4 Seeds (13-16): #13 Quinnipiac, #14 Penn State, #15 Minnesota State, and #16 Holy Cross
Next step, matching up teams to keep tournament integrity. We've got eight games in the first round, placed in four different regionals:
Regional 1: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Holy Cross, #8 Connecticut vs. #9 Ohio State
Regional 2: #2 Michigan State vs. #15 Minnesota State, #7 Boston University vs. #10 Denver
Regional 3: #3 Minnesota vs. #14 Penn State, #6 Providence vs. #11 Michigan
Regional 4: #4 Maine vs. #13 Quinnipiac, #5 Western Michigan vs. #12 Massachusetts
The only conference matchup we had is #3 Minnesota vs. #14 Penn State. It’s actually not as big an issue as it seems. Because Penn State is a regional host, we can swap them with #13 Quinnipiac to keep Maine out East while leaving the Fargo regional open for Minnesota. (We’re unable to switch them with #15, as Michigan State/Penn State would be another conference matchup).
The only other easy switch to increase attendance I want to make is swapping #10 Denver with #11 Michigan, which would likely boost attendance in both Fargo and Toledo.
Regional 1: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Holy Cross, #8 Connecticut vs. #9 Ohio State
Regional 2: #2 Michigan State vs. #15 Minnesota State, #7 Boston University vs. #11 Michigan
Regional 3: #3 Minnesota vs. #13 Quinnipiac, #6 Providence vs. #10 Denver
Regional 4: #4 Maine vs. #14 Penn State, #5 Western Michigan vs. #12 Massachusetts
When determining regional sites, the committee usually recognizes that driving is easier for teams and fans. However, once flying has been determined, it doesn't necessarily matter where that team is flying to. There are two east regionals (Allentown, Manchester), one midwest regional (Toledo) and one west regional (Fargo) this year.
The top four seeds are the exact same as our last ‘Bracketology,’ which makes placement this week fairly easy. The fourth regional (Maine, Western Michigan, Massachusetts, and Penn State) has to be placed in Allentown because the Nittany Lions are hosting.
That means all the top three seeds all get to stay at home. #1 Boston College in Manchester, #2 Michigan State in Toledo, and #3 Minnesota in Fargo.
- Final Result
Manchester, NH: #1 Boston College vs. #16 Holy Cross, #8 Connecticut vs. #9 Ohio State
Toledo, OH: #2 Michigan State vs. #15 Minnesota State, #7 Boston University vs. #11 Michigan
Fargo, ND: #3 Minnesota vs. #13 Quinnipiac, #6 Providence vs. #10 Denver
Allentown, PA: #4 Maine vs. #14 Penn State, #5 Western Michigan vs. #12 Massachusetts
This would be an almost perfect scenario for the tournament committee. Little conference matchups to worry around, and what-would-be great attendance at all four regionals.
I get the argument to keep bracket integrity with #10 Denver and #11 Michigan, but the difference between the two right now is just .0009 in RPI, and I believe the committee wants any excuse to keep Denver out west this season.
As conference tournaments get underway across the country, expect an updated ‘Bracketology’ every week for the rest of the season. Plus, more coverage of all the tournament teams when the NCAA Tournament gets underway later this month.